Archive for 2024

We were very concerned. This week’s cold weather event was one of the most severe of the last 15 years. Arguably the second most severe. We all remember days of outages and resulting tragedies caused by Winter Storm Uri in 2021. That can never be allowed to happen again.

Post Uri, the Texas Legislature mandated a long and complex list of market and operational changes. We’ve also reorganized both the Public Utility Commission and ERCOT which operates Texas’ electric grid. Many of these legislative mandates are in effect while others are still in the implementation process. 

Although there is more work to be done, I am encouraged by the performance of our grid during this recent weather event. This week was a big test. Here are some of my key takeaways. 

Takeaway #1 – Record Demand, Ample Reserve and No Emergency Conditions 

This past week we broke winter power demand records but never entered emergency condition status. Emergency conditions are triggered when electricity reserves drop below 2,500 megawatts (MW). During this cold wave we maintained at least 5,000 MW in reserve and had other contingencies available if needed. 

Takeaway #2 –Thermal Fleet Had Very Good Performance; Weatherization Working 

Much of Winter Storm Uri’s outages were caused by frozen equipment across the power grid. In 2021, the legislature implemented comprehensive weatherization standards and mandated inspections to ensure compliance. Although these were expensive and complex, we know the effort is having a positive impact. Thermal forced outages caused by the weather amounted to no more than 3,000 MW. That is less than half of the forced outage totals for the thermal electric generation fleet (natural gas, nuclear and coal) during the 2022 winter storm.

Takeaway #3 – Critical Load Maps, Firm Fuel, Gas Storage and Increased Communications 

In 2021, the legislature created the Texas Electricity Supply Chain Security and Mapping Committee. This entity was charged with mapping the electricity supply chain in Texas and identifying the critical infrastructure sources to ensure power is not lost. Additionally, we formalized in statute the Texas Energy Reliability Council (TERC) to enhance coordination and communication in the energy and electric industries. 

In discussions with the industry, we learned that these changes were paramount for grid preparedness and reliability during last summer’s and this winter’s extreme weather events. The collaboration from the electric and energy industry allows providers to troubleshoot quickly before a severe problem occurs or to expedite a timely resolution. 

The legislature also implemented incentives for generators to have firm fuel (a commitment to deliver fuel under any conditions) and onsite fuel storage. This is important because during gas curtailments, you want to have on site fuel storage as a backup. This has been working very well and thermal plants are staying operational. 

Takeaway #4 – A Pleasant Addition to the Grid: Batteries 

During Winter Storm Uri in 2021, battery storage was well before its prime. Since then, battery storage has become increasingly interconnected to the grid, and much more is projected to be available. Batteries performed in this winter storm exactly how we had hoped. They discharged power on the grid during peak demand and recharged during non-peak hours. I am excited to see what the future holds for battery storage. 

Takeaway #5 – Wind and Solar Remain Variable and Unpredictable 

Although it is a large segment of our electricity supply in Texas, solar and wind generation continues to be unreliable. We have made significant efforts to encourage more dispatchable generation, but it takes time to build power plants. Also, the federal government’s large subsidies for wind and solar projects discourages construction of the reliable, dispatchable natural gas fired plants of which we are in need. 

Takeaway #6 – ERCOT’s Power Demand Forecast Overly Conservative 

Part of ERCOT’s job is to forecast power demand so that adequate power is available hour by hour, day by day. It will take some time to explore why this happened, but ERCOT’s forecasts were much higher than real time demand during this winter event. We always want to err on the side of caution and be over prepared rather than under prepared, but we need to explore how to improve our winter forecasting. It has the potential for unintended consequences like unnecessarily driving up costs for consumers. 

Takeaway #7 – Dispatchable (Ready-to Go) Generation is Necessary for Texas’ Future 

During the November 2023 election, voters approved Prop 7 to help incentivize more dispatchable and reliable generation. The Texas Energy Fund will provide loans and grants for new dispatchable generation and help existing dispatchable generators make necessary improvements. This investment for our future is just one way that the legislature has encouraged a path forward to bring the right type of power generation to Texas. 

I hope this information is helpful and encouraging. This cold wave was a good test of the changes implemented across our electric grid over the last three years. The role of the PUC and ERCOT in implementing legislative mandates, and the cooperation and work of the electricity industry, deserve much recognition.

As always, I am available for any questions you may have or your feedback.

Special Thanks: If you know any linemen for the transmission and distribution utilities, tell them thank you! These men and women are first responders during a storm, and I know they worked many long hours, in very frigid conditions, to quickly resolve any local outages. 

With the winter weather conditions upon us, I would like to share some important information and resources that may be helpful for you, your family and friends. Please know that our state leaders are working nonstop to ensure necessary readiness so that all Texans stay safe and that we are well equipped for any impact that we may see from this multi-day weather event. I hope you stay safe and warm. If you have any specific problems our office can assist with, please don’t hesitate to email our office at [email protected]. 

Electricity Grid Conditions 
Our office has been in constant communication with ERCOT about the electricity grid conditions as the cold weather system moves in. Below are grid projections provided Saturday afternoon. Please note these are subject to change. 

Sunday – ERCOT anticipates all grid conditions to remain normal as the cold front arrives. (Normal means there is ample supply to meet demand)

Monday – ERCOT is projecting demand to reach around 80,000 megawatts (MW). For reference, during Winter Storm Elliott in December of 2022, the peak was at 75,000 megawatts. 

Tuesday – ERCOT is projecting Tuesday morning to be the tightest grid conditions during this cold event, anticipating a peak demand of 85,000 MW. (This type of demand level is similar to a summer number) 

Wednesday – ERCOT is projecting grid conditions to return to normal.  

Many variables can adjust these forecasts. A generation facility may trip offline or simply the wind dying down can make a big impact. We have put a lot of measures in place after Winter Storm Uri to ensure maximum preparedness and collaboration. All grid operators, companies generating electricity, and the companies that deliver the gas or electricity to your home are all communicating and are ready to work through the peak demand for power over these next few days. We have a lot of new tools in place to manage the grid through tight conditions. We saw them work well during the summer and expect the same during the winter. Inevitably, we will see localized power outages due to various reasons, like damage from a tree falling. It is always good during these tight grid conditions to be cognizant of your usage and try to conserve electricity when you can. 

There is a public dashboard that I would encourage you to utilize to monitor electricity grid conditions. This dashboard includes data on current supply/demand and what type of generation is currently providing power, just to name a few.  The dashboard can be viewed HERE. 

A map of outages can be found HERE. As a reminder, If your power goes out, contact your local energy provider to report the outage. 

Roads
We encourage everyone to stay off the roads if you can. If you do have to go somewhere, be cautious and check the current road conditions HERE. This will have the most up to date information on any road closures or damage in your area. 

Texas Department of Emergency Management (TDEM) Cold Weather Resources 
TDEM has increased the readiness level of our Texas State Operations Center to Level II (Escalated Response) and has mobilized state emergency response resources. Their website also includes a multitude of good resources for individuals and families. These resources can be found HERE. 

Again, I hope you and your family are safe during this extreme cold weather. Please don’t hesitate to respond to this email or email the office at [email protected] if we can be a resource.